Price Prediction: Intel Soared 450% in a Year. Will The Rally Continue?

Quick Read

• Intel surged 443% over the past year, but our model signals 90% confidence the stock is overvalued with a 12-month price target of $103.26.

• Intel Foundry lost $2.3 billion in a single quarter while CFO David Zinsner sold shares near $110, raising insider caution flags at current prices.

• Intel Xeon 6 powering NVIDIA's DGX Rubin systems and a multiyear Google ASIC partnership are the key catalysts bulls cite for a move above $125.

• Don't wait: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just revealed his top 10 AI stocks. See the full list FREE now.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has done the unthinkable. Shares are up 443.35% over the past year, transforming a left-for-dead turnaround story into one of the market's most talked-about rallies. The question is whether the run has more room or whether the price has outrun the fundamentals.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Intel is $103.26 over the next 12 months, implying 15.5% downside from the current $122.20. Our model signals meaningful overvaluation at current levels, with a confidence reading of 90%.

Why We Could Be Wrong

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target sits below where Intel trades today. Real upside could come from faster-than-expected Intel 18A ramp or from NVIDIA, Google, and SoftBank partnerships translating into durable foundry wins. Treat our number as one datapoint.

From $22 to $122 in a Year

Intel bottomed near $21.58 after Q2 2025, when the company posted a $2.918 billion net loss and $1.90 billion in restructuring charges tied to a 15% workforce reduction.

Q1 2026 delivered non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 on revenue of $13.577 billion, beating expectations by 9.22%. Data Center and AI grew 22% year-over-year to $5.052 billion, and Intel Foundry climbed 16%. Shares are up 231.17% year to date, though they cooled 7.23% in the past week from a peak near $127.86.

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The Case for $125+

Bulls argue earnings power is coming. CEO Lip-Bu Tan says "The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user, moving from foundational models to inference to agentic. This shift is significantly increasing the need for Intel's CPUs and wafer and advanced packaging offerings."

Intel Xeon 6 was selected as the host CPU for NVIDIA's DGX Rubin NVL8 systems, and the multiyear Google partnership on custom ASIC IPUs adds a second flagship hyperscaler. Q1 non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 41%, and CFO commentary flagged that demand is exceeding supply into 2026. The bull case models a $119.26 target with an upper band of $125.81.