Crude Oil Prices Retreat as US-Iran Peace Talks Set to Continue

Rich Asplund

Fri, July 10, 2026 at 12:23 PM PDT 5 min read

August WTI crude oil (CLQ26) on Friday closed down -0.67 (-0.93%), and August RBOB gasoline (RBQ26) closed down -0.0541 (-1.78%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices gave up an early advance on Friday and moved lower as prices whipsawed on various news headlines.  Crude prices initially jumped on Friday after Iran vowed to respond to the US attacks this week on Iran's rail and maritime infrastructure.  However, crude gave up its advance and turned lower after President Trump said that the US would continue peace talks with Iran.   

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Crude prices were under pressure on Friday after an American official said that talks between the US and Iran over a permanent peace deal are continuing, as the US is still committed to finding a diplomatic solution with Iran.  Also, Al Jazeera reported that Qatar said it supports all efforts to defuse US-Iran tensions.

Signs of mounting global supplies also weigh on crude prices, after the International Energy Agency said in a monthly report on Friday that the United Arab Emirates boosted crude oil production to an all-time high of 4.1 million bpd in June.

On Wednesday, President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is over, raising the prospect of persistent hostilities in the region that could disrupt energy supplies.  The US on Tuesday also revoked the Iran oil waiver that allowed buyers to purchase and transport Iranian oil legally.

Crude prices posted a 4.25-month low last Thursday as the recovery in oil flows through the Persian Gulf accelerated, sparking concerns of a supply glut. 

Stronger Russian crude exports are also adding to global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg show the four-week average of Russian crude exports rose to 4.13 million bpd through June 28, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.  Russia may be boosting its crude exports as the country's refining capacity has plunged due to damage at its refining facilities from Ukraine drone and missile attacks.

Crude prices have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.  According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 4.32 million bpd in the first 10 days of June, the lowest in 20 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine.  According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian fuel-producing facilities more than 50 times this year, compared with 82 for all of 2025.  As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities.  The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports.  Russia is the world's number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa.